USM Annaba 2–0 JSM Bejaia: Result & Stats

USM Annaba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

JSM Bejaia

Zarqin 57'

A. Khemaissia 36'

12/25/2021

League #187 · East - 10Stade du 19 Mai 1956

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

USM Annaba67%

×Draw22%

JSM Bejaia11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM AnnabaExpected goals in this matchJSM Bejaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.55

USM Annaba

1.77

JSM Bejaia

0.55

USM Annaba creates 222% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 29 away

2.00

creates per match

0.76

0.33

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

USM Annaba

2.00

JSM Bejaia

0.76

allows per match

USM Annaba

0.33

JSM Bejaia

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Annaba+0.00on par

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Annaba ↓

JSM Bejaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

USM Annaba or draw

89%

USM Annaba or JSM Bejaia

78%

Draw or JSM Bejaia

33%

Winning margin

USM Annaba wins by 2+

40%

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

USM Annaba 1+ goals

83%

USM Annaba 2+ goals

53%

USM Annaba 3+ goals

26%

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals

42%

JSM Bejaia 2+ goals

11%

JSM Bejaia 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

USM Annaba (draw refunded)

86%

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Annaba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

JSM Bejaia away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Annaba attack 2.00 + JSM Bejaia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

JSM Bejaia attack 0.76 + USM Annaba defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

USM Annaba scores more

67%

level

22%

JSM Bejaia scores more

11%

USM Annaba at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "USM Annaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

A. Khemaissia

57'

Zarqin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff