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JSM Bejaia vs USM Annaba — League #187 2026

JSM Bejaia
JSM Bejaia
FT
1 – 0
USM Annaba
USM Annaba
1/26/2019League #187League #187 · Round 19Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JSM Bejaia65%
×Draw25%
USM Annaba10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Bejaia
1.53
USM Annaba
0.41

JSM Bejaia creates 273% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 3 away

creates per match

JSM Bejaia
1.40
USM Annaba
0.00

allows per match

JSM Bejaia
0.83
USM Annaba
1.67

finishing

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par
USM Annaba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Bejaia ↓

USM Annaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JSM Bejaia or draw
90%
JSM Bejaia or USM Annaba
75%
Draw or USM Annaba
35%

Winning margin

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+
36%
USM Annaba wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals
78%
JSM Bejaia 2+ goals
45%
JSM Bejaia 3+ goals
20%
USM Annaba 1+ goals
34%
USM Annaba 2+ goals
6%
USM Annaba 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)
87%
USM Annaba (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Bejaia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

USM Annaba away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Bejaia attack 1.40 + USM Annaba defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

USM Annaba attack 0.00 + JSM Bejaia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

JSM Bejaia scores more
65%
level
25%
USM Annaba scores more
10%

JSM Bejaia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "JSM Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

JSM
USM

Match Recap: JSM Bejaia vs USM Annaba

JSM Bejaia beat USM Annaba 1-0 in League #187 on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).