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USM Alger vs SONIDEP — CAF Champions League 2019

USM Alger
USM Alger
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SONIDEP
SONIDEP
O. Ardji 65'
Muaid Ellafi 35' (pen)
A. Mahious 26'
M. Kheiraoui 62' (OG)
8/25/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundStade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

USM Alger61%
×Draw20%
SONIDEP18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Alger
2.17
SONIDEP
1.10

USM Alger creates 97% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

USM Alger
2.00
SONIDEP
1.00

allows per match

USM Alger
1.20
SONIDEP
2.33

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par
SONIDEP+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

SONIDEP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw
82%
USM Alger or SONIDEP
80%
Draw or SONIDEP
39%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+
38%
SONIDEP wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals
89%
USM Alger 2+ goals
64%
USM Alger 3+ goals
36%
SONIDEP 1+ goals
67%
SONIDEP 2+ goals
30%
SONIDEP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)
77%
SONIDEP (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

SONIDEP away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 2.00 + SONIDEP defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

SONIDEP attack 1.00 + USM Alger defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

USM Alger scores more
61%
level
20%
SONIDEP scores more
18%

USM Alger at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
A. Mahious
35'
Muaid EllafiPenalty
62'
M. KheiraouiOwn goal
65'
O. Ardji

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: USM Alger 3–1 SONIDEP

USM Alger beat SONIDEP 3-1 in CAF Champions League on August 25, 2019.

Goals: A. Mahious (26'), Muaid Ellafi (35' pen), M. Kheiraoui (62' o.g.), O. Ardji (65').

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.