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SONIDEP vs USM Alger — CAF Champions League 2019

SONIDEP
SONIDEP
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
M. Sabo 14'
Z. Benchaâ 71', 51'
8/9/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundStade Général Seyni Kountché (Niamey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SONIDEP36%
×Draw28%
USM Alger36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SONIDEP
1.20
USM Alger
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

SONIDEP
1.00
USM Alger
1.40

allows per match

SONIDEP
1.00
USM Alger
1.40

finishing

SONIDEP+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SONIDEP ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SONIDEP or draw
64%
SONIDEP or USM Alger
72%
Draw or USM Alger
64%

Winning margin

SONIDEP wins by 2+
15%
USM Alger wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SONIDEP 1+ goals
70%
SONIDEP 2+ goals
34%
SONIDEP 3+ goals
12%
USM Alger 1+ goals
70%
USM Alger 2+ goals
34%
USM Alger 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SONIDEP (draw refunded)
50%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SONIDEP at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

USM Alger away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SONIDEP attack 1.00 + USM Alger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

USM Alger attack 1.40 + SONIDEP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

SONIDEP scores more
36%
level
28%
USM Alger scores more
36%

SONIDEP at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "SONIDEP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. Sabo
51'
Z. Benchaâ
71'
Z. Benchaâ

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SONIDEP vs USM Alger

USM Alger beat SONIDEP 2-1 in CAF Champions League on August 9, 2019.

Goals: M. Sabo (14'), Z. Benchaâ (51', 71').

The match was played at Stade Général Seyni Kountché (Niamey).