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USM Alger vs Olympique Akbou — Ligue 1 2018

USM Alger
USM Alger
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
5/26/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

USM Alger50%
×Draw27%
Olympique Akbou22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Alger
1.40
Olympique Akbou
0.83

USM Alger creates 69% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

USM Alger
1.68
Olympique Akbou
0.90

allows per match

USM Alger
0.76
Olympique Akbou
1.13

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par
Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

Olympique Akbou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw
78%
USM Alger or Olympique Akbou
73%
Draw or Olympique Akbou
50%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+
25%
Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals
75%
USM Alger 2+ goals
41%
USM Alger 3+ goals
17%
Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
56%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
20%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)
69%
Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

USM Alger scores more
50%
level
27%
Olympique Akbou scores more
22%

USM Alger at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: USM Alger 1–1 Olympique Akbou

USM Alger and Olympique Akbou drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.