Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olympique Akbou vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
2/1/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Olympique Akbou43%
×Draw32%
USM Alger26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Akbou
1.09
USM Alger
0.77

Olympique Akbou creates 42% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 123 away

creates per match

Olympique Akbou
1.03
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

Olympique Akbou
0.67
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Akbou ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Olympique Akbou or draw
74%
Olympique Akbou or USM Alger
68%
Draw or USM Alger
57%

Winning margin

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
18%
USM Alger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
66%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
30%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
10%
USM Alger 1+ goals
54%
USM Alger 2+ goals
18%
USM Alger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
63%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Akbou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Akbou attack 1.03 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

USM Alger attack 0.87 + Olympique Akbou defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympique Akbou scores more
43%
level
32%
USM Alger scores more
26%

Olympique Akbou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympique Akbou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Olympique Akbou 0–0 USM Alger

Olympique Akbou and USM Alger drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine in Béjaïa.