USM Alger 4–1 JSM Skikda: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

USM Alger

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

JSM Skikda

3/20/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Omar Hamadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

USM Alger64%

×Draw24%

JSM Skikda12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM AlgerExpected goals in this matchJSM Skikda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.56

USM Alger

1.63

JSM Skikda

0.56

USM Alger creates 191% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 35 away

1.68

creates per match

0.37

0.76

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

USM Alger

1.68

JSM Skikda

0.37

allows per match

USM Alger

0.76

JSM Skikda

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par

JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

JSM Skikda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw

88%

USM Alger or JSM Skikda

76%

Draw or JSM Skikda

36%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+

36%

JSM Skikda wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals

80%

USM Alger 2+ goals

48%

USM Alger 3+ goals

22%

JSM Skikda 1+ goals

43%

JSM Skikda 2+ goals

11%

JSM Skikda 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)

84%

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

USM Alger scores more

64%

level

24%

JSM Skikda scores more

12%

USM Alger at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff