JSM Skikda 3–0 USM Alger: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

JSM Skikda

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

USM Alger

9/1/2018

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JSM Skikda39%

×Draw29%

USM Alger32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JSM SkikdaExpected goals in this matchUSM Alger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.02

JSM Skikda

1.17

USM Alger

1.02

JSM Skikda creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 123 away

1.19

creates per match

0.87

1.17

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

JSM Skikda

1.19

USM Alger

0.87

allows per match

JSM Skikda

1.17

USM Alger

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par

USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

USM Alger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw

68%

JSM Skikda or USM Alger

71%

Draw or USM Alger

61%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+

17%

USM Alger wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals

69%

JSM Skikda 2+ goals

33%

JSM Skikda 3+ goals

11%

USM Alger 1+ goals

64%

USM Alger 2+ goals

27%

USM Alger 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)

55%

USM Alger (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.19 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

USM Alger attack 0.87 + JSM Skikda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JSM Skikda scores more

39%

level

29%

USM Alger scores more

32%

JSM Skikda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff