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USM Alger vs Bordj Bou Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018

USM Alger
USM Alger
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
9/4/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Alger62%
×Draw24%
Bordj Bou Arreridj14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Alger
1.65
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.65

USM Alger creates 154% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 45 away

creates per match

USM Alger
1.68
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.53

allows per match

USM Alger
0.76
Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.62

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par
Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

Bordj Bou Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw
86%
USM Alger or Bordj Bou Arreridj
76%
Draw or Bordj Bou Arreridj
38%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+
34%
Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals
81%
USM Alger 2+ goals
49%
USM Alger 3+ goals
23%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
48%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
14%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)
81%
Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 0.53 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

USM Alger scores more
62%
level
24%
Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
14%

USM Alger at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: USM Alger 3–1 Bordj Bou Arreridj

USM Alger beat Bordj Bou Arreridj 3-1 in Ligue 1 on September 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).