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Bordj Bou Arreridj vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
1/18/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Municipal de Magra (Magra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj39%
×Draw30%
USM Alger31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.12
USM Alger
0.96

Bordj Bou Arreridj creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 123 away

creates per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.09
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.04
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj Bou Arreridj ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bordj Bou Arreridj or draw
69%
Bordj Bou Arreridj or USM Alger
70%
Draw or USM Alger
61%

Winning margin

Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
16%
USM Alger wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
67%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
31%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
10%
USM Alger 1+ goals
62%
USM Alger 2+ goals
25%
USM Alger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
56%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj Bou Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 1.09 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

USM Alger attack 0.87 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
39%
level
30%
USM Alger scores more
31%

Bordj Bou Arreridj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bordj Bou Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Bordj Bou Arreridj 1–1 USM Alger

Bordj Bou Arreridj and USM Alger drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Magra (Magra).