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USM Alger vs Ben Aknoun — Ligue 1 2018

USM Alger
USM Alger
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ben Aknoun
Ben Aknoun
5/30/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

USM Alger52%
×Draw27%
Ben Aknoun22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Alger
1.46
Ben Aknoun
0.84

USM Alger creates 74% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

USM Alger
1.68
Ben Aknoun
0.93

allows per match

USM Alger
0.76
Ben Aknoun
1.23

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par
Ben Aknoun+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

Ben Aknoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw
78%
USM Alger or Ben Aknoun
73%
Draw or Ben Aknoun
48%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+
26%
Ben Aknoun wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals
77%
USM Alger 2+ goals
43%
USM Alger 3+ goals
18%
Ben Aknoun 1+ goals
57%
Ben Aknoun 2+ goals
21%
Ben Aknoun 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)
70%
Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

Ben Aknoun away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ben Aknoun attack 0.93 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

USM Alger scores more
52%
level
27%
Ben Aknoun scores more
22%

USM Alger at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: USM Alger 0–2 Ben Aknoun

Ben Aknoun beat USM Alger 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Algiers.