Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

Ben Aknoun
Ben Aknoun
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
1/23/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ben Aknoun42%
×Draw27%
USM Alger30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ben Aknoun
1.32
USM Alger
1.08

Ben Aknoun creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 123 away

creates per match

Ben Aknoun
1.50
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

Ben Aknoun
1.30
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

Ben Aknoun+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ben Aknoun ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ben Aknoun or draw
70%
Ben Aknoun or USM Alger
73%
Draw or USM Alger
58%

Winning margin

Ben Aknoun wins by 2+
19%
USM Alger wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ben Aknoun 1+ goals
73%
Ben Aknoun 2+ goals
38%
Ben Aknoun 3+ goals
15%
USM Alger 1+ goals
66%
USM Alger 2+ goals
29%
USM Alger 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)
58%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ben Aknoun at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ben Aknoun attack 1.50 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

USM Alger attack 0.87 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ben Aknoun scores more
42%
level
27%
USM Alger scores more
30%

Ben Aknoun at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ben Aknoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Ben Aknoun 1–2 USM Alger

USM Alger beat Ben Aknoun 2-1 in Ligue 1 on January 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Algiers.