Uskok Klis 1–0 Urania Baška Voda: Result & Stats

Uskok Klis

FT

1 – 0

Urania Baška Voda

9/10/2022

Third NL - Jug · South - 4Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Uskok Klis66%

×Draw20%

Urania Baška Voda14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uskok KlisExpected goals in this matchUrania Baška Voda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.88

Uskok Klis

2.13

Urania Baška Voda

0.88

Uskok Klis creates 142% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 57 away

2.13

creates per match

0.81

0.94

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Uskok Klis

2.13

Urania Baška Voda

0.81

allows per match

Uskok Klis

0.94

Urania Baška Voda

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

Urania Baška Voda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw

86%

Uskok Klis or Urania Baška Voda

80%

Draw or Urania Baška Voda

34%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+

42%

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals

88%

Uskok Klis 2+ goals

63%

Uskok Klis 3+ goals

35%

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

59%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

22%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)

82%

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.13

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Uskok Klis scores more

66%

level

20%

Urania Baška Voda scores more

14%

Uskok Klis at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff