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Urania Baška Voda vs Uskok Klis — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
11/28/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 17Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda49%
×Draw25%
Uskok Klis26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.55
Uskok Klis
1.05

Urania Baška Voda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 87 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
Uskok Klis
0.89

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
Uskok Klis
1.56

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Uskok Klis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
74%
Urania Baška Voda or Uskok Klis
75%
Draw or Uskok Klis
51%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
25%
Uskok Klis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
79%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
46%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
20%
Uskok Klis 1+ goals
65%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
28%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
65%
Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.55

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
49%
level
25%
Uskok Klis scores more
26%

Urania Baška Voda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Urania Baška Voda 1–1 Uskok Klis

Urania Baška Voda and Uskok Klis drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.