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Uskok Klis vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
4/26/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 24Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Uskok Klis61%
×Draw21%
Hrvatski vitez18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uskok Klis
2.05
Hrvatski vitez
1.02

Uskok Klis creates 101% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 93 away

creates per match

Uskok Klis
2.13
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Uskok Klis
0.94
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw
82%
Uskok Klis or Hrvatski vitez
79%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
39%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+
37%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals
87%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
61%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
33%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
64%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
27%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
77%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.05

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Uskok Klis scores more
61%
level
21%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
18%

Uskok Klis at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uskok Klis vs Hrvatski vitez

Uskok Klis beat Hrvatski vitez 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion iza Grada in Klis.