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Hrvatski vitez vs Uskok Klis — Third NL - Jug 2019

Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
FT
1 – 2
Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
5/8/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 27Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Hrvatski vitez57%
×Draw23%
Uskok Klis19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski vitez
1.77
Uskok Klis
0.92

Hrvatski vitez creates 92% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 87 away

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez
1.99
Uskok Klis
0.89

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez
0.95
Uskok Klis
1.56

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par
Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Uskok Klis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw
81%
Hrvatski vitez or Uskok Klis
77%
Draw or Uskok Klis
43%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
32%
Uskok Klis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
83%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
53%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
26%
Uskok Klis 1+ goals
60%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
23%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
75%
Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.77

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more
57%
level
23%
Uskok Klis scores more
19%

Hrvatski vitez at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski vitez vs Uskok Klis

Uskok Klis beat Hrvatski vitez 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Gordan Demo in Posedarje.