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Uskok Klis vs HNK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
3/15/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Stadion iza Grada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Uskok Klis46%
×Draw25%
HNK Zadar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uskok Klis
1.61
HNK Zadar
1.26

Uskok Klis creates 28% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 77 away

creates per match

Uskok Klis
2.13
HNK Zadar
1.58

allows per match

Uskok Klis
0.94
HNK Zadar
1.09

finishing

Uskok Klis+0.00on par
HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uskok Klis ↓

HNK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Uskok Klis or draw
70%
Uskok Klis or HNK Zadar
75%
Draw or HNK Zadar
54%

Winning margin

Uskok Klis wins by 2+
23%
HNK Zadar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Uskok Klis 1+ goals
80%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
48%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
22%
HNK Zadar 1+ goals
72%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
36%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
60%
HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uskok Klis at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.94 · 87 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uskok Klis attack 2.13 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.61

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + Uskok Klis defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Uskok Klis scores more
46%
level
25%
HNK Zadar scores more
30%

Uskok Klis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Uskok Klis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uskok Klis vs HNK Zadar

Uskok Klis beat HNK Zadar 4-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion iza Grada in Klis.