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HNK Zadar vs Uskok Klis — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
1 – 1
Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
9/11/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

HNK Zadar69%
×Draw19%
Uskok Klis13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.21
Uskok Klis
0.82

HNK Zadar creates 170% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 87 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Uskok Klis
0.89

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Uskok Klis
1.56

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Uskok Klis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
87%
HNK Zadar or Uskok Klis
81%
Draw or Uskok Klis
31%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
45%
Uskok Klis wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
89%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
65%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
38%
Uskok Klis 1+ goals
56%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
20%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
85%
Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.21

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
69%
level
19%
Uskok Klis scores more
13%

HNK Zadar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Zadar vs Uskok Klis

HNK Zadar and Uskok Klis drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.