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Ushuru FC vs Kisumu All Stars — Super League 2018

Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
FT
1 – 1
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
4/15/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ushuru FC52%
×Draw28%
Kisumu All Stars21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ushuru FC
1.39
Kisumu All Stars
0.77

Ushuru FC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ushuru FC
1.29
Kisumu All Stars
0.89

allows per match

Ushuru FC
0.65
Kisumu All Stars
1.49

finishing

Ushuru FC+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ushuru FC ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ushuru FC or draw
79%
Ushuru FC or Kisumu All Stars
72%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
48%

Winning margin

Ushuru FC wins by 2+
25%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ushuru FC 1+ goals
75%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
40%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
16%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
54%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
18%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
71%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ushuru FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.49 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ushuru FC attack 1.29 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.89 + Ushuru FC defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ushuru FC scores more
52%
level
28%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
21%

Ushuru FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ushuru FC 1–1 Kisumu All Stars

Ushuru FC and Kisumu All Stars drew 1-1 in Super League on April 15, 2018.