Kisumu All Stars 2–3 Ushuru FC: Result & Stats

Kisumu All Stars

FT

2 – 3

Ushuru FC

9/5/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kisumu All Stars34%

×Draw29%

Ushuru FC37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchUshuru FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.15

Kisumu All Stars

1.08

Ushuru FC

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.47

0.83

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.41

Ushuru FC

1.47

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.83

Ushuru FC

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Ushuru FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

63%

Kisumu All Stars or Ushuru FC

71%

Draw or Ushuru FC

66%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

13%

Ushuru FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

66%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

29%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

10%

Ushuru FC 1+ goals

68%

Ushuru FC 2+ goals

32%

Ushuru FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

48%

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 106 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.41 + Ushuru FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ushuru FC attack 1.47 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

34%

level

29%

Ushuru FC scores more

37%

Ushuru FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff