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Ushuru FC vs KCB — Super League 2018

Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
FT
0 – 0
KCB
KCB
7/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ushuru FC33%
×Draw33%
KCB34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ushuru FC
0.91
KCB
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ushuru FC
1.29
KCB
1.18

allows per match

Ushuru FC
0.65
KCB
0.53

finishing

Ushuru FC+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ushuru FC ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ushuru FC or draw
66%
Ushuru FC or KCB
67%
Draw or KCB
67%

Winning margin

Ushuru FC wins by 2+
12%
KCB wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ushuru FC 1+ goals
60%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
23%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
6%
KCB 1+ goals
60%
KCB 2+ goals
23%
KCB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
50%
KCB (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ushuru FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

KCB away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ushuru FC attack 1.29 + KCB defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.91

KCB attack 1.18 + Ushuru FC defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Ushuru FC scores more
33%
level
33%
KCB scores more
34%

KCB at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ushuru FC 0–0 KCB

Ushuru FC and KCB drew 0-0 in Super League on July 7, 2018.