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KCB vs Ushuru FC — Super League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
1 – 0
Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
2/25/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCB40%
×Draw27%
Ushuru FC33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.31
Ushuru FC
1.16

KCB creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

KCB
1.87
Ushuru FC
1.44

allows per match

KCB
0.87
Ushuru FC
0.75

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Ushuru FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KCB or draw
67%
KCB or Ushuru FC
73%
Draw or Ushuru FC
60%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
18%
Ushuru FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
73%
KCB 2+ goals
38%
KCB 3+ goals
14%
Ushuru FC 1+ goals
69%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
32%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
55%
Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.87 + Ushuru FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ushuru FC attack 1.44 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KCB scores more
40%
level
27%
Ushuru FC scores more
33%

KCB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: KCB 1–0 Ushuru FC

KCB beat Ushuru FC 1-0 in Super League on February 25, 2018.