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Ushuru FC vs Bidco United — Super League 2018

Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
FT
1 – 1
Bidco United
Bidco United
10/13/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ushuru FC35%
×Draw31%
Bidco United34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ushuru FC
1.02
Bidco United
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ushuru FC
1.29
Bidco United
1.38

allows per match

Ushuru FC
0.65
Bidco United
0.75

finishing

Ushuru FC+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ushuru FC ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ushuru FC or draw
66%
Ushuru FC or Bidco United
69%
Draw or Bidco United
65%

Winning margin

Ushuru FC wins by 2+
13%
Bidco United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ushuru FC 1+ goals
64%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
27%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
8%
Bidco United 1+ goals
64%
Bidco United 2+ goals
27%
Bidco United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
50%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ushuru FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ushuru FC attack 1.29 + Bidco United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Bidco United attack 1.38 + Ushuru FC defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ushuru FC scores more
35%
level
31%
Bidco United scores more
34%

Ushuru FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ushuru FC vs Bidco United

Ushuru FC and Bidco United drew 1-1 in Super League on October 13, 2018.