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Bidco United vs Ushuru FC — Super League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
0 – 1
Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
5/20/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bidco United37%
×Draw31%
Ushuru FC32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.06
Ushuru FC
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bidco United
1.35
Ushuru FC
1.47

allows per match

Bidco United
0.47
Ushuru FC
0.76

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Ushuru FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
68%
Bidco United or Ushuru FC
69%
Draw or Ushuru FC
63%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
15%
Ushuru FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
65%
Bidco United 2+ goals
29%
Bidco United 3+ goals
9%
Ushuru FC 1+ goals
62%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
25%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
53%
Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.35 + Ushuru FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ushuru FC attack 1.47 + Bidco United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bidco United scores more
37%
level
31%
Ushuru FC scores more
32%

Bidco United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidco United vs Ushuru FC

Ushuru FC beat Bidco United 1-0 in Super League on May 20, 2018.