USFAS Bamako 1–0 USC Kita: Result & Stats

USFAS Bamako

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

USC Kita

6/8/2023

Première Division · Round 23Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USFAS Bamako41%

×Draw32%

USC Kita28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USFAS BamakoExpected goals in this matchUSC Kita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.82

USFAS Bamako

1.06

USC Kita

0.82

USFAS Bamako creates 29% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

1.08

creates per match

0.76

0.88

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

USFAS Bamako

1.08

USC Kita

0.76

allows per match

USFAS Bamako

0.88

USC Kita

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

USC Kita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw

72%

USFAS Bamako or USC Kita

68%

Draw or USC Kita

59%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+

16%

USC Kita wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals

65%

USFAS Bamako 2+ goals

29%

USFAS Bamako 3+ goals

9%

USC Kita 1+ goals

56%

USC Kita 2+ goals

20%

USC Kita 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)

59%

USC Kita (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.08 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

USC Kita attack 0.76 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more

41%

level

32%

USC Kita scores more

28%

USFAS Bamako at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff