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USC Kita vs USFAS Bamako — Première Division 2019

USC Kita
USC Kita
FT
1 – 2
USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
4/26/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 24Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USC Kita37%
×Draw32%
USFAS Bamako31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Kita
0.99
USFAS Bamako
0.89

USC Kita creates 11% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 93 away

creates per match

USC Kita
0.92
USFAS Bamako
0.99

allows per match

USC Kita
0.79
USFAS Bamako
1.05

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par
USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

USFAS Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw
69%
USC Kita or USFAS Bamako
68%
Draw or USFAS Bamako
63%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+
14%
USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals
63%
USC Kita 2+ goals
26%
USC Kita 3+ goals
8%
USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
59%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
22%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)
54%
USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

USC Kita scores more
37%
level
32%
USFAS Bamako scores more
31%

USC Kita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USC Kita vs USFAS Bamako

USFAS Bamako beat USC Kita 2-1 in Première Division on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.