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USFAS Bamako vs Étoiles Mandé — Première Division 2019

USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
Unknown 69'
Unknown 77'
4/1/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 16Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

USFAS Bamako48%
×Draw29%
Étoiles Mandé23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USFAS Bamako
1.31
Étoiles Mandé
0.82

USFAS Bamako creates 60% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 13 away

creates per match

USFAS Bamako
1.08
Étoiles Mandé
0.77

allows per match

USFAS Bamako
0.88
Étoiles Mandé
1.54

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par
Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

Étoiles Mandé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw
77%
USFAS Bamako or Étoiles Mandé
71%
Draw or Étoiles Mandé
52%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
23%
Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
73%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
38%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
14%
Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
56%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
20%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
67%
Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.88 · 91 matches

Étoiles Mandé away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.08 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.77 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more
48%
level
29%
Étoiles Mandé scores more
23%

USFAS Bamako at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: USFAS Bamako 1–1 Étoiles Mandé

USFAS Bamako and Étoiles Mandé drew 1-1 in Première Division on April 1, 2025.

Goals: ? (69', 77').

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.