Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Étoiles Mandé vs USFAS Bamako — Première Division 2019

Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
12/7/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 3Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoiles Mandé25%
×Draw29%
USFAS Bamako46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoiles Mandé
0.83
USFAS Bamako
1.23

USFAS Bamako creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 93 away

creates per match

Étoiles Mandé
0.62
USFAS Bamako
0.99

allows per match

Étoiles Mandé
1.46
USFAS Bamako
1.05

finishing

Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par
USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoiles Mandé ↓

USFAS Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Étoiles Mandé or draw
54%
Étoiles Mandé or USFAS Bamako
71%
Draw or USFAS Bamako
75%

Winning margin

Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
8%
USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
56%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
20%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
5%
USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
71%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
35%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
35%
USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoiles Mandé at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.62 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.83

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Étoiles Mandé scores more
25%
level
29%
USFAS Bamako scores more
46%

USFAS Bamako at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Étoiles Mandé vs USFAS Bamako

USFAS Bamako beat Étoiles Mandé 1-0 in Première Division on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.