USFAS Bamako 1–1 ASOM: Result & Stats

USFAS Bamako

FT

1 – 1

ASOM

6/24/2022

Première Division · Round 31Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

USFAS Bamako45%

×Draw31%

ASOM24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USFAS BamakoExpected goals in this matchASOM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.77

USFAS Bamako

1.16

ASOM

0.77

USFAS Bamako creates 51% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 40 away

1.11

creates per match

0.65

0.89

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

USFAS Bamako

1.11

ASOM

0.65

allows per match

USFAS Bamako

0.89

ASOM

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

ASOM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

ASOM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw

76%

USFAS Bamako or ASOM

69%

Draw or ASOM

55%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+

19%

ASOM wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals

69%

USFAS Bamako 2+ goals

32%

USFAS Bamako 3+ goals

11%

ASOM 1+ goals

54%

ASOM 2+ goals

18%

ASOM 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)

65%

ASOM (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 94 matches

ASOM away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.11 + ASOM defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

ASOM attack 0.65 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more

45%

level

31%

ASOM scores more

24%

USFAS Bamako at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff