ASOM 0–2 USFAS Bamako: Result & Stats

ASOM

FT

0 – 2

USFAS Bamako

1/4/2020

Première Division · Round 13Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

ASOM29%

×Draw29%

USFAS Bamako42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASOMExpected goals in this matchUSFAS Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.21

ASOM

0.95

USFAS Bamako

1.21

USFAS Bamako creates 27% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 95 away

0.85

creates per match

0.99

1.44

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

ASOM

0.85

USFAS Bamako

0.99

allows per match

ASOM

1.44

USFAS Bamako

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASOM+0.00on par

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASOM ↓

USFAS Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

ASOM or draw

58%

ASOM or USFAS Bamako

71%

Draw or USFAS Bamako

71%

Winning margin

ASOM wins by 2+

10%

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

ASOM 1+ goals

61%

ASOM 2+ goals

25%

ASOM 3+ goals

7%

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals

70%

USFAS Bamako 2+ goals

34%

USFAS Bamako 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ASOM (draw refunded)

41%

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASOM at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.44 · 41 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASOM attack 0.85 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + ASOM defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ASOM scores more

29%

level

29%

USFAS Bamako scores more

42%

USFAS Bamako at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.