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USD Palmese vs Tivoli — Serie D - Girone G 2019

USD Palmese
USD Palmese
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tivoli
Tivoli
11/27/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

USD Palmese46%
×Draw25%
Tivoli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USD Palmese
1.56
Tivoli
1.19

USD Palmese creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

USD Palmese
1.53
Tivoli
1.24

allows per match

USD Palmese
1.15
Tivoli
1.59

finishing

USD Palmese+0.00on par
Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USD Palmese ↓

Tivoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

USD Palmese or draw
71%
USD Palmese or Tivoli
75%
Draw or Tivoli
54%

Winning margin

USD Palmese wins by 2+
23%
Tivoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

USD Palmese 1+ goals
79%
USD Palmese 2+ goals
46%
USD Palmese 3+ goals
21%
Tivoli 1+ goals
70%
Tivoli 2+ goals
33%
Tivoli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

USD Palmese (draw refunded)
61%
Tivoli (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USD Palmese at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USD Palmese attack 1.53 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tivoli attack 1.24 + USD Palmese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

USD Palmese scores more
46%
level
25%
Tivoli scores more
29%

USD Palmese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "USD Palmese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USD Palmese vs Tivoli

USD Palmese beat Tivoli 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania in Palma Campania.