Tivoli 1–0 USD Palmese: Result & Stats

Tivoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

USD Palmese

4/6/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 30Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli41%

×Draw30%

USD Palmese29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TivoliExpected goals in this matchUSD Palmese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.93

Tivoli

1.15

USD Palmese

0.93

Tivoli creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.88

creates per match

1.15

0.71

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tivoli

0.88

USD Palmese

1.15

allows per match

Tivoli

0.71

USD Palmese

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par

USD Palmese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

USD Palmese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw

71%

Tivoli or USD Palmese

70%

Draw or USD Palmese

59%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+

17%

USD Palmese wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals

68%

Tivoli 2+ goals

32%

Tivoli 3+ goals

11%

USD Palmese 1+ goals

61%

USD Palmese 2+ goals

24%

USD Palmese 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)

58%

USD Palmese (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

USD Palmese away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + USD Palmese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

USD Palmese attack 1.15 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tivoli scores more

41%

level

30%

USD Palmese scores more

29%

Tivoli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff