USD Palmese vs Arzachena — Serie D - Girone G 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
USD Palmese41%
Arzachena33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
USD Palmese creates 15% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 46 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
USD Palmese ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
USD Palmese at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches
Arzachena away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
USD Palmese attack 1.53 + Arzachena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44
Arzachena attack 1.35 + USD Palmese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
USD Palmese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "USD Palmese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Turris
Ostia Mare
Torres
Trastevere
Latte Dolce
Latina
Cassino
Vis Artena
Muravera
Team Nuova Florida
Lanusei
Portici
ApriliaArzachena
Città di Anagni
Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza
Ladispoli
BudoniIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
USD Palmese host Arzachena on Sunday, 11 December 2022 at 13:00. The match is part of the Serie D - Girone G 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: USD Palmese vs Arzachena
Arzachena beat USD Palmese 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 11, 2022.
The match was played at Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania in Palma Campania.