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Arzachena vs USD Palmese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Arzachena
Arzachena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
USD Palmese
USD Palmese
4/23/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 32Stadio Biagio Pirina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Arzachena44%
×Draw26%
USD Palmese30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzachena
1.44
USD Palmese
1.15

Arzachena creates 25% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

creates per match

Arzachena
1.48
USD Palmese
1.15

allows per match

Arzachena
1.15
USD Palmese
1.41

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par
USD Palmese+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

USD Palmese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw
70%
Arzachena or USD Palmese
74%
Draw or USD Palmese
56%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+
21%
USD Palmese wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals
76%
Arzachena 2+ goals
42%
Arzachena 3+ goals
18%
USD Palmese 1+ goals
68%
USD Palmese 2+ goals
32%
USD Palmese 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)
59%
USD Palmese (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

USD Palmese away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + USD Palmese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

USD Palmese attack 1.15 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arzachena scores more
44%
level
26%
USD Palmese scores more
30%

Arzachena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Arzachena 3–0 USD Palmese

Arzachena beat USD Palmese 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Biagio Pirina in Arzachena.