USD Palmese 3–1 Angri Calcio: Result & Stats

USD Palmese

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Angri Calcio

9/11/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

USD Palmese44%

×Draw25%

Angri Calcio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USD PalmeseExpected goals in this matchAngri Calcio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.25

USD Palmese

1.56

Angri Calcio

1.25

USD Palmese creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

1.35

1.15

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

USD Palmese

1.53

Angri Calcio

1.35

allows per match

USD Palmese

1.15

Angri Calcio

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USD Palmese+0.00on par

Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USD Palmese ↓

Angri Calcio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

USD Palmese or draw

69%

USD Palmese or Angri Calcio

75%

Draw or Angri Calcio

56%

Winning margin

USD Palmese wins by 2+

22%

Angri Calcio wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

USD Palmese 1+ goals

79%

USD Palmese 2+ goals

46%

USD Palmese 3+ goals

21%

Angri Calcio 1+ goals

71%

Angri Calcio 2+ goals

36%

Angri Calcio 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

USD Palmese (draw refunded)

59%

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USD Palmese at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Angri Calcio away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USD Palmese attack 1.53 + Angri Calcio defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Angri Calcio attack 1.35 + USD Palmese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

USD Palmese scores more

44%

level

25%

Angri Calcio scores more

31%

USD Palmese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "USD Palmese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff