Angri Calcio 1–2 USD Palmese: Result & Stats

Angri Calcio

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

USD Palmese

1/15/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 19Campo Sportivo Paolo Borsellino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Angri Calcio34%

×Draw27%

USD Palmese39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angri CalcioExpected goals in this matchUSD Palmese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.28

Angri Calcio

1.17

USD Palmese

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.94

creates per match

1.15

1.41

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Angri Calcio

0.94

USD Palmese

1.15

allows per match

Angri Calcio

1.41

USD Palmese

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angri Calcio+0.00on par

USD Palmese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angri Calcio ↓

USD Palmese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Angri Calcio or draw

61%

Angri Calcio or USD Palmese

73%

Draw or USD Palmese

66%

Winning margin

Angri Calcio wins by 2+

14%

USD Palmese wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Angri Calcio 1+ goals

69%

Angri Calcio 2+ goals

33%

Angri Calcio 3+ goals

11%

USD Palmese 1+ goals

72%

USD Palmese 2+ goals

37%

USD Palmese 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)

46%

USD Palmese (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angri Calcio at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

USD Palmese away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angri Calcio attack 0.94 + USD Palmese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

USD Palmese attack 1.15 + Angri Calcio defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Angri Calcio scores more

34%

level

27%

USD Palmese scores more

39%

USD Palmese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "USD Palmese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff