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USC Rohrbach vs Krems — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
FT
1 – 2
Krems
Krems
10/23/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 8Liese Prokop Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

USC Rohrbach25%
×Draw24%
Krems51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Rohrbach
1.14
Krems
1.71

Krems creates 50% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 26 away

creates per match

USC Rohrbach
1.23
Krems
1.88

allows per match

USC Rohrbach
1.54
Krems
1.04

finishing

USC Rohrbach+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Rohrbach ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

USC Rohrbach or draw
49%
USC Rohrbach or Krems
76%
Draw or Krems
75%

Winning margin

USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
10%
Krems wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
68%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
32%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
11%
Krems 1+ goals
82%
Krems 2+ goals
51%
Krems 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
33%
Krems (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Rohrbach at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 71 matches

Krems away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Rohrbach attack 1.23 + Krems defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Krems attack 1.88 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

USC Rohrbach scores more
25%
level
24%
Krems scores more
51%

Krems at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USC Rohrbach vs Krems

Krems beat USC Rohrbach 2-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on October 23, 2020.

The match was played at Liese Prokop Sportanlage in Rohrbach an der Gölsen.