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Krems vs USC Rohrbach — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Krems
Krems
CANC
14:30
USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
4/25/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 23Sepp-Doll-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Krems67%
×Draw18%
USC Rohrbach15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krems
2.38
USC Rohrbach
1.02

Krems creates 133% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 71 away

creates per match

Krems
2.83
USC Rohrbach
1.06

allows per match

Krems
0.97
USC Rohrbach
1.94

finishing

Krems+0.00on par
USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krems ↓

USC Rohrbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Krems or draw
85%
Krems or USC Rohrbach
82%
Draw or USC Rohrbach
33%

Winning margin

Krems wins by 2+
45%
USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Krems 1+ goals
91%
Krems 2+ goals
68%
Krems 3+ goals
42%
USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
64%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
27%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Krems (draw refunded)
82%
USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krems at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krems attack 2.83 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.38

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + Krems defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Krems scores more
67%
level
18%
USC Rohrbach scores more
15%

Krems at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Krems host USC Rohrbach

April 25, 2021: Krems take on USC Rohrbach in Landesliga - Niederosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Krems host USC Rohrbach at Sepp-Doll-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.