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USC Kita vs Police — Première Division 2019

USC Kita
USC Kita
FT
0 – 1
Police
Police
10/15/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 1Stade Municipal de Kita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USC Kita37%
×Draw33%
Police31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Kita
0.95
Police
0.84

USC Kita creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 80 away

creates per match

USC Kita
0.92
Police
0.90

allows per match

USC Kita
0.79
Police
0.97

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw
69%
USC Kita or Police
67%
Draw or Police
63%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+
13%
Police wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals
61%
USC Kita 2+ goals
25%
USC Kita 3+ goals
7%
Police 1+ goals
57%
Police 2+ goals
21%
Police 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)
54%
Police (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

Police away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + Police defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Police attack 0.90 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

USC Kita scores more
37%
level
33%
Police scores more
31%

USC Kita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: USC Kita 0–1 Police

Police beat USC Kita 1-0 in Première Division on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kita in Kita.