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Police vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

Police
Police
FT
2 – 1
USC Kita
USC Kita
5/9/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 16Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Police37%
×Draw32%
USC Kita32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police
1.00
USC Kita
0.91

Police creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Police
0.95
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

Police
1.06
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

Police+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Police or draw
68%
Police or USC Kita
68%
Draw or USC Kita
63%

Winning margin

Police wins by 2+
14%
USC Kita wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Police 1+ goals
63%
Police 2+ goals
26%
Police 3+ goals
8%
USC Kita 1+ goals
60%
USC Kita 2+ goals
23%
USC Kita 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Police (draw refunded)
54%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police attack 0.95 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Police scores more
37%
level
32%
USC Kita scores more
32%

Police at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Police 2–1 USC Kita

Police beat USC Kita 2-1 in Première Division on May 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro in Koulikoro.