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USC Kita vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

USC Kita
USC Kita
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Djoliba
Djoliba
1/5/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 12Terrain AS Réal de Bamako

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USC Kita24%
×Draw32%
Djoliba44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Kita
0.73
Djoliba
1.09

Djoliba creates 49% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 95 away

creates per match

USC Kita
0.92
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

USC Kita
0.79
Djoliba
0.54

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw
56%
USC Kita or Djoliba
68%
Draw or Djoliba
76%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+
7%
Djoliba wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals
52%
USC Kita 2+ goals
17%
USC Kita 3+ goals
4%
Djoliba 1+ goals
66%
Djoliba 2+ goals
30%
Djoliba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)
36%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + Djoliba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.73

Djoliba attack 1.39 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

USC Kita scores more
24%
level
32%
Djoliba scores more
44%

Djoliba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USC Kita vs Djoliba

Djoliba beat USC Kita 2-0 in Première Division on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain AS Réal de Bamako in Bamako.