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Djoliba vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USC Kita
USC Kita
5/15/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 27Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Djoliba53%
×Draw29%
USC Kita18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.31
USC Kita
0.63

Djoliba creates 108% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 66 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
82%
Djoliba or USC Kita
71%
Draw or USC Kita
47%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
25%
USC Kita wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
73%
Djoliba 2+ goals
38%
Djoliba 3+ goals
14%
USC Kita 1+ goals
47%
USC Kita 2+ goals
13%
USC Kita 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
75%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Djoliba scores more
53%
level
29%
USC Kita scores more
18%

Djoliba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Djoliba 3–0 USC Kita

Djoliba beat USC Kita 3-0 in Première Division on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.