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USC Kita vs COB — Première Division 2019

USC Kita
USC Kita
FT
1 – 1
COB
COB
5/16/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 24Stade Municipal de Kita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USC Kita39%
×Draw31%
COB30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Kita
1.06
COB
0.89

USC Kita creates 19% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

USC Kita
0.92
COB
0.98

allows per match

USC Kita
0.79
COB
1.20

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par
COB+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

COB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw
70%
USC Kita or COB
69%
Draw or COB
61%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+
15%
COB wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals
65%
USC Kita 2+ goals
29%
USC Kita 3+ goals
9%
COB 1+ goals
59%
COB 2+ goals
22%
COB 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)
57%
COB (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

COB away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + COB defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

COB attack 0.98 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

USC Kita scores more
39%
level
31%
COB scores more
30%

USC Kita at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: USC Kita 1–1 COB

USC Kita and COB drew 1-1 in Première Division on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kita in Kita.