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COB vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

COB
COB
FT
0 – 0
USC Kita
USC Kita
12/27/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 9Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

COB35%
×Draw32%
USC Kita33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

COB
0.96
USC Kita
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

COB
0.86
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

COB
1.09
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

COB+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

COB ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

COB or draw
67%
COB or USC Kita
68%
Draw or USC Kita
65%

Winning margin

COB wins by 2+
13%
USC Kita wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

COB 1+ goals
62%
COB 2+ goals
25%
COB 3+ goals
7%
USC Kita 1+ goals
61%
USC Kita 2+ goals
24%
USC Kita 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

COB (draw refunded)
51%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

COB at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

COB attack 0.86 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

USC Kita attack 0.76 + COB defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

COB scores more
35%
level
32%
USC Kita scores more
33%

COB at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "COB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: COB 0–0 USC Kita

COB and USC Kita drew 0-0 in Première Division on December 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.