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USC Kita vs CAS de Sévaré — Première Division 2019

USC Kita
USC Kita
FT
1 – 0
CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
2/27/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 2Stade Municipal de Kita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

USC Kita45%
×Draw31%
CAS de Sévaré24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Kita
1.13
CAS de Sévaré
0.73

USC Kita creates 55% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 9 away

creates per match

USC Kita
0.92
CAS de Sévaré
0.67

allows per match

USC Kita
0.79
CAS de Sévaré
1.33

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par
CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

CAS de Sévaré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw
76%
USC Kita or CAS de Sévaré
69%
Draw or CAS de Sévaré
55%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+
19%
CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals
68%
USC Kita 2+ goals
31%
USC Kita 3+ goals
11%
CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
52%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
17%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)
66%
CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

CAS de Sévaré away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + CAS de Sévaré defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.67 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

USC Kita scores more
45%
level
31%
CAS de Sévaré scores more
24%

USC Kita at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: USC Kita 1–0 CAS de Sévaré

USC Kita beat CAS de Sévaré 1-0 in Première Division on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kita in Kita.