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CAS de Sévaré vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
FT
1 – 1
USC Kita
USC Kita
4/15/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Stade Baréma Bocoum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CAS de Sévaré23%
×Draw25%
USC Kita52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAS de Sévaré
0.97
USC Kita
1.60

USC Kita creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 66 away

creates per match

CAS de Sévaré
0.89
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

CAS de Sévaré
2.44
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAS de Sévaré ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CAS de Sévaré or draw
48%
CAS de Sévaré or USC Kita
75%
Draw or USC Kita
77%

Winning margin

CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
8%
USC Kita wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
62%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
25%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
7%
USC Kita 1+ goals
80%
USC Kita 2+ goals
47%
USC Kita 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
31%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAS de Sévaré at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.89 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

USC Kita attack 0.76 + CAS de Sévaré defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CAS de Sévaré scores more
23%
level
25%
USC Kita scores more
52%

USC Kita at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAS de Sévaré vs USC Kita

CAS de Sévaré and USC Kita drew 1-1 in Première Division on April 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Baréma Bocoum in Mopti.