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USC Kita vs Afrique Football Élite — Première Division 2019

USC Kita
USC Kita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Afrique Football Élite
Afrique Football Élite
11/1/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 1Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USC Kita36%
×Draw34%
Afrique Football Élite31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Kita
0.91
Afrique Football Élite
0.82

USC Kita creates 11% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 73 away

creates per match

USC Kita
0.92
Afrique Football Élite
0.86

allows per match

USC Kita
0.79
Afrique Football Élite
0.89

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par
Afrique Football Élite+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

Afrique Football Élite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw
69%
USC Kita or Afrique Football Élite
66%
Draw or Afrique Football Élite
64%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+
13%
Afrique Football Élite wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals
60%
USC Kita 2+ goals
23%
USC Kita 3+ goals
6%
Afrique Football Élite 1+ goals
56%
Afrique Football Élite 2+ goals
20%
Afrique Football Élite 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)
54%
Afrique Football Élite (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

Afrique Football Élite away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + Afrique Football Élite defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Afrique Football Élite attack 0.86 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

USC Kita scores more
36%
level
34%
Afrique Football Élite scores more
31%

USC Kita at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USC Kita vs Afrique Football Élite

USC Kita and Afrique Football Élite drew 1-1 in Première Division on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta in Bamako.