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Afrique Football Élite vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

Afrique Football Élite
Afrique Football Élite
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
USC Kita
USC Kita
2/5/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 16Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Afrique Football Élite38%
×Draw32%
USC Kita31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afrique Football Élite
1.01
USC Kita
0.88

Afrique Football Élite creates 15% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 66 away

creates per match

Afrique Football Élite
0.97
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

Afrique Football Élite
1.00
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

Afrique Football Élite+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afrique Football Élite ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Afrique Football Élite or draw
69%
Afrique Football Élite or USC Kita
68%
Draw or USC Kita
62%

Winning margin

Afrique Football Élite wins by 2+
14%
USC Kita wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Afrique Football Élite 1+ goals
64%
Afrique Football Élite 2+ goals
27%
Afrique Football Élite 3+ goals
8%
USC Kita 1+ goals
59%
USC Kita 2+ goals
22%
USC Kita 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Afrique Football Élite (draw refunded)
55%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afrique Football Élite at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afrique Football Élite attack 0.97 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Afrique Football Élite defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Afrique Football Élite scores more
38%
level
32%
USC Kita scores more
31%

Afrique Football Élite at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Afrique Football Élite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afrique Football Élite vs USC Kita

Afrique Football Élite beat USC Kita 2-1 in Première Division on February 5, 2024.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta in Bamako.