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US Souf vs JS Kabylie — Ligue 1 2018

US Souf
US Souf
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
6/14/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade El Oued OPOW

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

US Souf19%
×Draw22%
JS Kabylie59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Souf
1.03
JS Kabylie
1.96

JS Kabylie creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 123 away

creates per match

US Souf
1.13
JS Kabylie
1.04

allows per match

US Souf
2.87
JS Kabylie
0.93

finishing

US Souf+0.00on par
JS Kabylie+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Souf ↓

JS Kabylie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

US Souf or draw
41%
US Souf or JS Kabylie
78%
Draw or JS Kabylie
81%

Winning margin

US Souf wins by 2+
7%
JS Kabylie wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

US Souf 1+ goals
64%
US Souf 2+ goals
28%
US Souf 3+ goals
9%
JS Kabylie 1+ goals
86%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
58%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

US Souf (draw refunded)
25%
JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Souf at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

JS Kabylie away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Souf attack 1.13 + JS Kabylie defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

JS Kabylie attack 1.04 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

US Souf scores more
19%
level
22%
JS Kabylie scores more
59%

JS Kabylie at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: US Souf vs JS Kabylie

JS Kabylie beat US Souf 4-0 in Ligue 1 on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Oued OPOW in El Oued.