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JS Kabylie vs US Souf — Ligue 1 2018

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
US Souf
US Souf
1/27/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade du 1er Novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

JS Kabylie74%
×Draw18%
US Souf8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
2.13
US Souf
0.56

JS Kabylie creates 280% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.39
US Souf
0.33

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.79
US Souf
2.87

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
US Souf+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

US Souf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
92%
JS Kabylie or US Souf
82%
Draw or US Souf
26%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
49%
US Souf wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
88%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
63%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
35%
US Souf 1+ goals
43%
US Souf 2+ goals
11%
US Souf 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
90%
US Souf (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

US Souf away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.13

US Souf attack 0.33 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
74%
level
18%
US Souf scores more
8%

JS Kabylie at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kabylie vs US Souf

JS Kabylie beat US Souf 3-2 in Ligue 1 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 in Tizi-Ouzou.